News Alert: GOHSEP Situational Awareness Report 3 June 2016 As of 8:00 am
Posted: 6/3/2016 10:08:11 AM
Louisiana Business Emergency Operations Center

GOHSEP Situational Awareness Report

3 June 2016

As of 8:00 am

State EOC Activation Level: CAT (Crisis Action Team)

 

 

 

Situation: The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico region. The National Weather Service is also monitoring a deep upper low that will impact the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley over the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the region through Sunday or possible Monday. Stay tuned to your local National Weather Service for the latest information.
 
Tropical Weather Outlook: An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed over the western Caribbean Sea. This system is moving west-northwestward toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and a low pressure area is expected to form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters by late this weekend. This low could develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days. This system is NOT forecasted to have an impact on Louisiana.

Chance of Formation (48 Hours)

·        Low (10%)

Chance of Formation (5 Days)

·        Medium (60%)

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook:

 

North Louisiana: Showers and thunderstorms are expected again today and tonight. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in some storms. However, hazardous weather is not expected at this time. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the upcoming weekend. Additional rainfall amounts of around 1 inch are expected with isolated higher amounts possible. Although flash flooding is not expected at this time, this rainfall could lead to additional flooding on area rivers and lakes.

 

Southwest/Central Louisiana: Dangerous flash flooding is possible across the forecast area and a Flash Flood Watch is in effect. Low pressure tracking very slowly across Texas will bring occasional rounds of heavy rainfall. Daily amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be common with some areas receiving up to 8 inches. Those areas where rainfall has already occurred will be particularly vulnerable to life threatening flash flooding. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Saturday and the flash flood threat will continue. Rain chances will finally diminish by Monday as the low moves past the area and dry weather is anticipated for the remainder of next week.

 

Southeast Louisiana: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected today, especially west of the Pearl River. A few of the thunderstorms could be strong, capable of producing occasional to frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours of rain. There is the potential for some flooding and ponding of water in locations where rainfall may persist for several hours. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for areas generally to the west of Interstate 55. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts approaching 5 inches will be possible through tonight. Thunderstorm coverage will continue through the Sunday period. Some of the activity during this time frame could become strong and produce small hail, strong gusty winds and heavy downpours of rain. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be extended into Saturday and possible expanded. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches can be expected with isolated amounts in excess of 6 inches possible.

 

For more information on the Hazardous Weather Outlook, visit: http://www.weather.gov/

For more information on the Tropical Weather Outlook, visit:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

GOHSEP Operations is monitoring the situation and will continue to update as needed.

 

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