Situational Awareness Report

20 August 2016

As of 1:00 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook: The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring three (3) tropical disturbances in the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico region. Please stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center and your Local National Weather Service Office for the latest updates.

Tropical Storm Fiona:  The center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 47.8 West. Fiona is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fiona is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression tonight or early Sunday, and it could degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Disturbance 1: A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.  The associated shower activity remains disorganized, and any development during the next couple of days should be slow to occur due to its large size and proximity to dry air.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development beyond a couple of days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and into the eastern Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Disturbance 2: A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move offshore tonightand environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development.  This system is likely to become a tropical depression by mid-week while it moves generally west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

For more information on the Tropical Weather Outlook, visit:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

GOHSEP Operations is monitoring the situation and will continue to update and report as needed.