News Alert: GOHSEP Tropical Weather SITREP September 15, 2017 As of 8:00 AM
Posted: 9/15/2017 8:19:21 AM
Louisiana Business Emergency Operations Center

GOHSEP Tropical Weather SITREP

September 15, 2017

As of 8:00 AM

 

State EOC Activation Level: Level IV

 

Tropical Weather Outlook: The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking 3 systems in the Atlantic Ocean area. Details for these systems can be found below. Please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service for the latest updates. The GOHSEP Operations Section will continue to closely monitor these systems and report as needed.

 

Tropical Storm Jose: Jose is forecasted to head up the east coast of the U.S. and is NOT a threat to the Gulf Coast states.

 

Tropical Wave #1: A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3

days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

               * Formation chance through 48 hours – medium - 50 percent.

               * Formation chance through 5 days – high - 90 percent.

 

Tropical Depression Fourteen: The center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 27.3 West. The depression is forecast to become a Tropical Storm later today or tomorrow. The cloud pattern of the depression rapidly became better organized several hours ago when advisories were initiated. Since that time, the structure has changed little, and the winds are still at 35 mph with higher gust. Currently, the cyclone is embedded within a favorable environment of low shear, and the NHC forecast calls for gradual intensification during the next 3 days. However, the global models (primarily the GFS and the ECMWF) develop a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic which will bring high shear over the cyclone by day 4. This should result in weakening as indicated in the forecast.
 
Satellite fixes suggest that the depression has slowed down and is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 15 mph. The depression is being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north. The same trough that will cause an increase in the shear will also weaken the subtropical ridge, causing the cyclone to turn more to the west-northwest beyond 3 days. The NHC track is very close to HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model consensus TVCX. These two models have been performing very well so far this season.
  

For more information on the Tropical Weather Outlook, visit:  

Active http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

5 Day Outlook: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

 

GOHSEP Operations is monitoring the situation and will continue to update and report as needed.

 

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