Situational Awareness Report

16 November 2015

As of  3:30 pm

State EOC Activation Level: CAT (Crisis Action Team)

WebEOC Incident Name: “15-040 Severe Weather – Statewide – 17-18 November 2015”

Situation: A strong upper level storm system and associated cold front will shift out of the Rockies later today and tonight, increasing the potential for severe thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday. Please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service for the latest advisories, watches and warnings. Also, please see the attached weather briefing slides from NWS Slidell and NWS Shreveport.

North Louisiana: An intense squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop Tuesday ahead of a cold front and strong upper level storm system. The rapid movement of this line of thunderstorms will pose a threat of damaging winds (up to 70 mph within the squall line), large hail and isolated tornadoes. These winds could cause significant damage to trees and power lines and possible damage to mobile homes and roofs.  2 to 4 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts will be possible with this system which could result in flash flooding. These threats will diminish from west to east late on Tuesday as the front exits the region.

Southwest/Central Louisiana:  There will be an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday into early Wednesday mainly due to the potential for squall line development. This frontal system will have the potential for producing severe thunderstorms ahead of the front with the main threat from straight line winds with very heavy rains. These winds are expected to be between 20 and 30 mph, however winds up to 70 mph could be possible in association with the squall line thunderstorms. Hail could also be possible during this time.

Southeast Louisiana:  Individual thunderstorms could be severe ahead of a cold front Tuesday. A squall line of strong to severe storms is also expected along the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Organized severe storms are anticipated and at this time there is an enhanced risk of severe storms Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday for most of the area. All modes of severe weather are possible however the main threats will be damaging winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher speeds of up to 70 mph within the squall line, possible tornadoes mainly Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, and heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible.

For more information please visit: http://www.weather.gov/

GOHSEP Operations is monitoring the situation and will continue to update and report as needed.