Forecast Overview and Weather Hazards: (Thursday 5/26 – Tuesday 5/31)
Overview:
● Storm and isolated flooding hazards will be present in areas east of the Mississippi River today, Friday,
and early Saturday as a storm system slowly pushes off of the East Coast by Sunday. A second storm
system will begin to move into the Pacific Northwest today, slowly moving across the Interior West
before stalling across the center of the CONUS by Monday. Impacts such as severe storms, heavy rain,
and higher elevation winter weather will be possible from the Pacific Northwest, across the northern
Plains, and into the upper Midwest Friday into early this upcoming week. Hot and dry conditions will
exist from the Southwest into the southern Plains through the period. Minor to isolated major river
flooding impacts are expected to continue over the Northern Plains. Minor river flooding impacts will
continue over the Central Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend.
Thursday:
● A risk of isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will be present from the central Gulf Coast to
the southern Appalachians. The greatest threat of widespread flash flooding will exist along the coasts of
Alabama and Mississippi into the far western Florida Panhandle.
● Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over Ohio and portions of eastern Oregon, southeast
Washington, northern and central Idaho, and western Montana. Strong wind gusts and large hail are the
primary severe hazards.
● Elevated fire weather conditions will be in place over the Great Basin Thursday afternoon.
Friday:
● Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the Carolinas northward into eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey as well as eastern Montana, northern Wyoming, and the western Dakotas.
Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat with the stronger storms.
● Unsettled weather conditions are forecast to continue in the Pacific Northwest.
● Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over portions of the Great Basin and Southwest.
Saturday:
● Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across the north-central CONUS.
● As surface winds increase across the southern High Plains, the fire weather threat will increase to critical
levels.
● Record breaking warm temperatures are forecasted from the central to southern Plains.
● Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will also be present over portions of the Southwest, Great
Basin, and southern California as strong winds and very dry conditions develop.
● Several rounds of showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow are expected across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Intermountain West.
Sunday:
● Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible from the central Plains into the western Great Lakes.
● Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist across the southern High Plains and much of the
Southwest as strong winds continue.
● Wintry precipitation will impact travel across the northern Rockies of Montana and Idaho and higher
elevations of the Pacific Northwest.
● Record warm temperatures will be present across Texas.
Monday:
● Wintry precipitation could impact travel in the northern Rockies of Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming.
● Elevated to critical fire weather conditions may persist over portions of the Southwest as gusty
conditions prevail.
● Heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flash flooding in the Northern High Plains and Upper Midwest.
Tuesday:
● Storms with heavy rainfall will be possible from the Plains into the upper Midwest.
● Early season heat with possible record temperatures is possible across the lower Great Lakes into the
Ohio Valley.
NWS Regional Breakdown:
● Eastern Region (East Coast from ME to SC, Lower Great Lakes, OH and WV):
○ Thursday, strong to severe thunderstorms may produce heavy rain from the southern
Appalachians in the Carolinas to the Ohio Valley. Potential threats include locally damaging
winds, hail, a few tornadoes and heavy rainfall.
○ Friday, strong to severe thunderstorms move east and will impact much of the east coast, from
the Carolinas, through the Mid Atlantic and into the northeast. Potential threats will once again
include locally damaging winds, hail, a few tornadoes and heavy rainfall.
○ Saturday, lingering showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of the Mid Atlantic and into
the northeast. Heavy downpours and locally gusty winds will be the primary threats, focused in
New England.
○ No significant weather is expected Sunday into Monday.
○ A few strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the northeast late Monday into Tuesday.
○ Heat will build across much of the eastern U.S. Monday and Tuesday.
● Central Region (Dakotas, WY and CO eastward to MI, IN and KY):
○ Severe weather concerns through Sunday across the Dakotas eastward into MN/IA
○ Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across southern CO through the weekend
○ Moderate to major river flooding across eastern ND, northeast SD, and far western MN
● Southern Region (NM eastward to TN, GA and FL, as well as Puerto Rico):
○ Heavy rainfall and flash flooding likely across the Gulf Coast on Thursday.
○ Isolated strong to severe storms across the Gulf Coast and Southeast on Thursday and across
Georgia and northern Florida on Friday.
○ Elevated to critical fire weather conditions Friday through the weekend across New Mexico and
parts of West Texas.
○ Near record heat across eastern New Mexico, West Texas, and southwest Oklahoma Saturday
and Sunday.
● Western Region (Intermountain West to the West Coast):
○ Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Washington, eastern
Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana on Thursday
○ Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across eastern Montana
○ Near-record hot temperatures will develop for portions of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest
on Thursday and Friday, with a cooling trend expected for the remainder of the holiday weekend
○ Gusty winds and dry conditions will lead to periods of elevated or critical fire weather concerns
across the southwestern portion of the continental United States through the end of the week and
much of the holiday weekend
○ High elevation snowfall could impact travel across mountains and mountain passes in Oregon,
Idaho, and Montana Saturday night through Tuesday
● Alaska Region (State of AK):
○ A warm and drying trend centers over the Southwest and extends over into Southcentral and
Interior Alaska, bringing fire weather issues across the central and southern mainland Friday and
Saturday.
○ Warm temperatures across the central and eastern Interior will cause an increase in snowmelt and
river levels. Low-lying areas and roads may be susceptible to flooding.
○ Minor flooding due to snowmelt is likely to continue across portions of the northern Copper
River Basin, Innoko River, and in Northway along Moose Creek.
● Pacific Region (including Hawaii, Guam and American Samoa):
○ Hawaii and American Samoa: No significant hazardous weather during the holiday period.
○ Guam: Locally heavy rain possible Friday afternoon with island convection and a slight chance of
thunderstorms returning Memorial Day and Tuesday. Otherwise, no significant hazardous weather during
the holiday period.
Potential Impacts to Air Travel
Air travel delays due to weather conditions during the holiday period:
● Fri, May 27, 2022
○ Boston, La Guardia, John F. Kennedy, Newark, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Dulles, Reagan, Charlotte &
Atlanta – Low Ceilings/Visibility & Thunderstorms
○ Tampa & Orlando – Thunderstorms
○ Las Vegas – Wind
● Sat, May 28, 2022
○ Boston, La Guardia, John F. Kennedy, Newark, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Dulles, Reagan – Low
Ceilings/Visibility
○ Tampa, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale & Miami – Thunderstorms
○ Las Vegas – Wind
● Sun, May 29, 2022
○ Minneapolis, Tampa, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale & Miami – Thunderstorms
○ Las Vegas & San Francisco – Wind
● Mon, May 30, 2022
○ Minneapolis, Denver, Tampa, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale & Miami – Thunderstorms
○ Las Vegas & San Francisco – Wind
**This will be the only hazards outlook produced for the Memorial Day holiday. All weather events during this
time frame that cause significant impacts will be covered in subsequent Significant Event Reports.**
Links:
● Current National NWS Hazards
● NWS Weather Prediction Center – Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
● NWS Storm Prediction Center – Convective Outlooks
● NWS Storm Prediction Center – Fire Weather Outlooks
● NWS Ocean Prediction Center
● NWS National Hurricane Center
● NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) River Forecasts
● NWS Aviation Weather Center
● Eastern Region
● Central Region
● Southern Region
● Western Region
● Alaska Region
● Pacific Region