News Alert: GOHSEP Tropical Outlook Situational Awareness Report
Posted: 8/31/2016 4:27:12 PM
Louisiana Business Emergency Operations Center

Situational Awareness Report

31 August 2016

As of 2:30 pm


WebEOC Incident: “16-020 Invest 99 — Statewide — August 2016



Tropical Weather Outlook: The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a tropical disturbance, a tropical depression, Tropical Storm Hermine and Hurricane Gaston in the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico region. Please stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center and your Local National Weather Service Office for the latest updates.



Hurricane Gaston:  The center of Hurricane Gaston was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 48.6 West. Gaston is moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.  On this track Gaston will be approaching the Azores on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts.  Gaston is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).



Tropical Storm Hermine: The center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 88.0 West. Hermine appears to be drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h). A north-northeastward motion is expected later today, and a turn toward the northeast with increasing forward speed is expected on Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will approach the northwest Florida coast in the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


Tropical Depression 8: The center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 73.1 West.  The depression is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is still possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


Disturbance 1: Broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located over the far eastern Atlantic just west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  This wave is expected to be in an environment of very dry air for the next few days, which should prevent significant development during that time.   Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for slow development on Sunday or Monday when the wave is near the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... Low...0 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days... Low...30 percent



For more information on the Tropical Weather Outlook, visit:

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