News Alert: Situational Awareness Report 11 September 2018 As of 1:45 p.m.
Posted: 9/11/2018 1:57:54 PM
Louisiana Business Emergency Operations Center
Situational Awareness Report
11 September 2018
As of 1:45 p.m.

State EOC Activation Level: Level IV (Normal Operations)
WebEOC Incident: N/A


SITUATION: The National Hurricane Center is currently issuing advisories for Hurricane Florence, Hurricane Helene, Tropical Storm Isaac and two other disturbances in the Atlantic Basin Region. GOHSEP is only reporting on storms that MAY have an effect on the Gulf of Mexico region. GOHSEP is closely monitoring these systems and will continue to be in contact with the NHC and local National Weather Service offices.
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC:  At 1:00 PM CST, the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located with high-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite data near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 50.4 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 16 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track Isaac is anticipated to move near or over the central Lesser Antilles on Thursday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph with higher gusts. Isaac is expected to be near hurricane strength when it moves through the central Lesser Antilles, with some weakening forecast afterward on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb.
DISTURBANCE #1: Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. Ship reports indicate that this system is producing strong gusty winds over the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. If necessary, an Air Force Reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow. Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula today.  * Formation chance through 48 hours...MEDIUM...50 percent.  * Formation chance through 5 days...HIGH...70 percent.
Southwest Louisiana impacts from Disturbance #1: We are expecting a wet forecast to continue through the end of the week for the southwest portions of Louisiana. One to three inches of rain is expected, with locally higher amounts. However, if the system that comes in the Gulf comes closer to southwest Louisiana, we could see substantially higher amounts. Tides will run a foot above normal and this will result in minor coastal flooding only during periods of high tides this week. Stay in touch with the updating weather forecasts this week through your local National Weather Service Office for further details

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