News Alert: GOHSEP DAILY OPERATIONAL REPORT 15 November 2011
Posted: 11/15/2011 1:27:45 PM
Louisiana Business Emergency Operations Center
 

GOHSEP DAILY OPERATIONAL REPORT
15 November 2011
As of:  1300 Hours
STATE EOC ACTIVATION LEVEL: Level 4 (Normal operations)

 

1. TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE:


As of 1300 hours 15 Nov 2011, the NWS/NHC is reporting no Tropical Cyclone formation expected during the next 48 hours.

 

More information can be accessed from The National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

2. STATE WIDE EVENTS:   

STATEWIDE PARISH BURN BANS / DROUGHT 2011:

WebEOC Incident 010-11 Statewide Parish Burn Ban

 

State Fire Marshal H. “Butch” Browning and Agriculture and Forestry Commissioner Mike Strain have lifted the statewide burn ban as of 11 November 2011.

 

While the State burn ban has been lifted, the following parishes still have declarations of a state of emergency due to the extreme drought situation.

Bossier (expires 17 November 2011), will not extend

Caddo (expires 17 November 2011), will not extend

Jefferson Davis (expires 14 December 2011)

 

National Weather Service Drought Assessment Graphic:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml

 

 

3. LOUISIANA WEATHER:

SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA: Today has a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms during the day increasing to 80 percent tonight.  Wednesday will have 20 percent chance of showers improving to partly cloudy at night.  Thursday through Saturday will be mostly sunny during the day to partly cloudy at night.

Temperatures: Today: 82/66, Wednesday: 79/49, Thursday: 66/42, Friday: 70/59, Saturday: 77/65.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER:  There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across the entire area.  A vigorous upper level storm system is expected to lift northeast out of southern Texas across the region this afternoon and evening.  Model projections at this time point to a squall line approaching east Texas during afternoon hours, crossing the Sabine River by early evening, then progressing east through the rest of Louisiana during the evening and early overnight hours. Damaging winds appear to be the primary severe weather hazard, though large hail and tornadoes will also be possible.

 

The risk of severe weather will diminish after midnight as the upper level storm system pulls east of the region and thunderstorm activity moves east of the Atchafalaya River.

 

 

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA: Today has a 60 percent chance for showers throughout the day and night. Wednesday will have a 20 percent chance of rain during the day improving to partly cloudy at night. Thursday through Friday will be sunny during the day and clear to mostly cloudy at night.  Saturday will be a slight chance of showers during throughout the day.

Temperatures: Today: 82/67, Wednesday: 82/52, Thursday: 69/41, Friday: 69/54, Saturday: 78/61.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER:  There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms mainly this evening and overnight tonight. The area of greatest threat will be east-central Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. The primary threats will be damaging wind gusts 50 to 60 mph from a squall line, large hail quarter size or larger and occasional lightning. Isolated tornadoes are also possible from stronger storms within or just in advance of the squall line. The severe weather threat will diminish with the passage of a pre-frontal squall line from west to east overnight. The actual cold front will move through the area Wednesday.

A small craft advisory will likely be needed late Wednesday night for the coastal waters and tidal lakes as cold air moves into the coastal waters.

 

CENTRAL LOUISIANA:  Today is partly sunny with a 60 percent chance of severe thunderstorms increasing to 80 percent tonight. Wednesday has a 30 percent chance of daytime showers improving to partly cloudy at night.  Thursday through Saturday will be sunny during the day and partly cloudy at night.

Temperatures: Today: 83/64, Wednesday: 73/42, Thursday: 62/34, Friday: 66/48, Saturday: 74/62

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER: There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across the entire area.  A vigorous upper level storm system is expected to lift northeast out of southern Texas across the region this afternoon and evening. Model projections at this time point to a squall line approaching east Texas during themed afternoon hours crossing the Sabine River by early evening, then progressing east through the rest of Louisiana during the evening and early overnight hours.

 

Damaging winds appear to be the primary severe weather hazard, though large hail and tornadoes will also be possible.

 

The risk of severe weather will diminish after midnight as the upper level storm system pulls east of the region and thunderstorm activity moves east of the Atchafalaya River.

 

 

NORTHERN LOUISIANA:   Today and tonight will have an 80 percent chance for severe thunderstorms. Wednesday has a 50 percent chance of daytime showers improving to partly cloudy at night. Thursday and Friday will be mostly sunny during the day and mostly cloudy at night.  Saturday will be partly sunny during the day with a 20 percent chance of showers at night. 

Temperatures: Today: 77/60, Wednesday: 66/43, Thursday: 63/35, Friday: 64/47, Saturday: 75/60

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER: An upper low moving into central Texas this morning will increase shower and thunderstorm activity across the area today.  Rainfall amounts will typically be a half inch to an inch with isolated amounts of up to an inch and a half.  A severe weather threat will be possible across the area, mainly south of I-30. This severe weather threat will be dependent upon daytime heating with damaging straight line winds being the main threat and isolated tornadoes and hail more secondary.

 

Some lingering shower activity may be observed Wednesday morning. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected.

 

4. HAZMAT: None

5. FIRE: None

6. MEDICAL: None

7. NTAS (National Terrorist Advisory System): Currently there are no active alerts.

For more information go to following link; http://www.dhs.gov/files/programs/ntas.shtm.

8. CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL, RADIOLOGICAL, NUCLEAR, EXPLOSIVE: None

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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