Category: Weather
Increased Threat of Severe Weather March 24, 2023
Please be aware that there is an increased risk of severe weather on Friday, March 24. Please monitor your weather service of choice throughout the day as well as local emergency professionals for the latest updates.
Stay Safe
Sever Weather March 2, 2023
Louisiana faces an increased risk of severe weather and tornadic activity this evening and into the overnight hours. Please make sure that you have ways to receive weather alerts overnight.
The National Weather Service graphics for severe potential in your area.
State Monitors Weather System Bringing Rainfall Today and Tomorrow
GOHSEP is monitoring a weather system bringing continued rainfall to the state today and tomorrow. The runoff from this additional rainfall may cause flooding from rising waterways, as well as scattered flash flooding.
State Severe Weather & Flooding Graphics – 1/24/23 6AM
Here is the latest statewide graphics concerning the potential for severe weather for today Tuesday, January 24.
WEATHER NOTICE – FREEZING CONDITIONS
Updated Graphics for Winter Weather Threat this week
The National Weather Service (NWS) New Orleans has produced updated weather graphics concerning the significant cold weather threat at the end of the week. As always, please reference your local Emergency Management office for advice concerning your area.
Dangerous Cold Temperatures Later This Week
A strong cold front will move into the state on Thursday, causing temperatures to drop into the 20s as early as that afternoon. Strong winds with gusts up to forty miles per hour will accompany the front, resulting in wind chills into the teens. Cold temperatures will last into the Christmas weekend. Potential impacts include freezing weather. In some areas, minor snow accumulations cannot be ruled out for Thursday afternoon and night.
State monitoring risk of severe weather Friday and Saturday
GOHSEP is monitoring potential effects associated with a cold front that will be moving into the state tonight.
The northwest part of the state will see an enhanced risk of severe weather tonight, and the northeast, central, and southwest parts of the state will see a slight risk of severe weather into Saturday morning. The southeast part of the state will see a marginal risk of severe weather tomorrow.
Possible impacts include damaging winds, local heavy rainfall, tornadoes, and large hail.
NOAA: Flooding in the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley
A multi-day heavy rainfall event is in progress from across the ArkLaTex region this morning. The threat of heavy rainfall leading to flash, urban, and small stream flooding will persist through at least Wednesday from central Texas into the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
The Weather Prediction Center has included a Moderate Risk in its Excessive Rainfall Outlook for portions of the ArkLaTex today and tomorrow from northern Louisiana into southeastern Arkansas and western Mississippi.
Additional rainfall of 3-6 inches with isolated pockets of 7+ inches is possible over the next 5 days from central Texas to central Mississippi.
Isolated minor flooding is possible on rivers in eastern Texas and through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Much of this rainfall will be beneficial and welcome due to the effects of an ongoing drought.
Forecast Details and Additional Impacts:
Widespread thunderstorms, with a few locally strong storms capable of producing gusty winds, will be possible today from central Texas across parts of Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi.
Links:.
NWS Weather Prediction Center – Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) River Forecasts
Information in this report was provided by the Weather Prediction Center and the NWS Southern Region Regional Operations Center.
St. Charles Parish officials hope new weather tech will help in storm response and recovery
ST. CHARLES PARISH (WVUE) – It’s been nearly one year since Hurricane Ida made landfall and many are still trying to rebuild. In St. Charles Parish, officials are preparing ahead of the next big storm. They say a new interactive weather station will not only help parish officials with response, but help residents in recovery.
“This is one of 20 weather stations we’ve put out throughout the parish we use internally to help us make decisions when we have severe weather,” said St. Charles Parish President Matthew Jewell. “So whether that’s being able to monitor rain rates and rain accumulations and being able to use that information when we’re engaging our pumping stations or whether we’re in extreme heat advisories and we need to make sure our employees are aware who are working out in the field.”
Jewell said the new weather station technology by WeatherSTEM was installed at the parish’s Emergency Operations Center (EOC), thanks to a grant from the Department of Homeland Security – State Homeland Security Program (SHSP), “which provides funding that supports the implementation of instrumentation dedicated to enhancing resilience against manmade and natural disaster threats.”
He said it will not only help parish officials in making real-time decisions but it’s also public facing, meaning residents will have access to the technology as well.
“One of the big things we saw last year during Hurricane Ida is these insurance companies telling our residents that the weather never got as bad as it did or the wind didn’t get above 80 or 90 mph which simply wasn’t true,” said Jewell.
The new weather station will also store data from past weather events that officials and residents can access.
“This weather station here is ready for 180 mph winds, we have backup generation on it so we know we will be able to collect data from this weather station, we know it’s not going to go down and we know we can give residents the information they need to help fight these insurance companies who are really trying to work over some of these residents.”
When it comes to recovery in St. Charles Parish, Jewell said it’s a long process.
About 80 percent of it got done pretty quickly, and I feel like we’re in that last 20 percent, which is just a day-to-day battle,” he said. “Whether you’re battling with your insurance company or a contractor, or if you didn’t get enough from your insurance company, now it’s not enough to cover materials under this inflation. It’s a constant battle and I think this last 20 percent is going to take a while but we’re taking it one day at a time and that’s just how you gotta get through it.”
In addition to the new weather system, Jewell said the parish is working to repair and enhance all of its technologies and response tools ahead of any major storm that might arise this hurricane season.
“We’re trying to beef up all of our repairs so that they can withstand a Hurricane Ida type of event and we’re also working on a lot of resiliency and redundancy in our critical infrastructure to make sure that when I storm hits, those critical infrastructures don’t go down and we can remain more resilient during the future.”
The weather station offers free weather education for those interested in learning about meteorology and weather events. Click here for more.
Memorial Day 2022 – Weather Hazards Outlook
Forecast Overview and Weather Hazards: (Thursday 5/26 – Tuesday 5/31)
Overview:
● Storm and isolated flooding hazards will be present in areas east of the Mississippi River today, Friday,
and early Saturday as a storm system slowly pushes off of the East Coast by Sunday. A second storm
system will begin to move into the Pacific Northwest today, slowly moving across the Interior West
before stalling across the center of the CONUS by Monday. Impacts such as severe storms, heavy rain,
and higher elevation winter weather will be possible from the Pacific Northwest, across the northern
Plains, and into the upper Midwest Friday into early this upcoming week. Hot and dry conditions will
exist from the Southwest into the southern Plains through the period. Minor to isolated major river
flooding impacts are expected to continue over the Northern Plains. Minor river flooding impacts will
continue over the Central Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend.
Thursday:
● A risk of isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will be present from the central Gulf Coast to
the southern Appalachians. The greatest threat of widespread flash flooding will exist along the coasts of
Alabama and Mississippi into the far western Florida Panhandle.
● Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over Ohio and portions of eastern Oregon, southeast
Washington, northern and central Idaho, and western Montana. Strong wind gusts and large hail are the
primary severe hazards.
● Elevated fire weather conditions will be in place over the Great Basin Thursday afternoon.
Friday:
● Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the Carolinas northward into eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey as well as eastern Montana, northern Wyoming, and the western Dakotas.
Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat with the stronger storms.
● Unsettled weather conditions are forecast to continue in the Pacific Northwest.
● Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over portions of the Great Basin and Southwest.
Saturday:
● Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across the north-central CONUS.
● As surface winds increase across the southern High Plains, the fire weather threat will increase to critical
levels.
● Record breaking warm temperatures are forecasted from the central to southern Plains.
● Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will also be present over portions of the Southwest, Great
Basin, and southern California as strong winds and very dry conditions develop.
● Several rounds of showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow are expected across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Intermountain West.
Sunday:
● Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible from the central Plains into the western Great Lakes.
● Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist across the southern High Plains and much of the
Southwest as strong winds continue.
● Wintry precipitation will impact travel across the northern Rockies of Montana and Idaho and higher
elevations of the Pacific Northwest.
● Record warm temperatures will be present across Texas.
Monday:
● Wintry precipitation could impact travel in the northern Rockies of Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming.
● Elevated to critical fire weather conditions may persist over portions of the Southwest as gusty
conditions prevail.
● Heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flash flooding in the Northern High Plains and Upper Midwest.
Tuesday:
● Storms with heavy rainfall will be possible from the Plains into the upper Midwest.
● Early season heat with possible record temperatures is possible across the lower Great Lakes into the
Ohio Valley.
NWS Regional Breakdown:
● Eastern Region (East Coast from ME to SC, Lower Great Lakes, OH and WV):
○ Thursday, strong to severe thunderstorms may produce heavy rain from the southern
Appalachians in the Carolinas to the Ohio Valley. Potential threats include locally damaging
winds, hail, a few tornadoes and heavy rainfall.
○ Friday, strong to severe thunderstorms move east and will impact much of the east coast, from
the Carolinas, through the Mid Atlantic and into the northeast. Potential threats will once again
include locally damaging winds, hail, a few tornadoes and heavy rainfall.
○ Saturday, lingering showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of the Mid Atlantic and into
the northeast. Heavy downpours and locally gusty winds will be the primary threats, focused in
New England.
○ No significant weather is expected Sunday into Monday.
○ A few strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the northeast late Monday into Tuesday.
○ Heat will build across much of the eastern U.S. Monday and Tuesday.
● Central Region (Dakotas, WY and CO eastward to MI, IN and KY):
○ Severe weather concerns through Sunday across the Dakotas eastward into MN/IA
○ Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across southern CO through the weekend
○ Moderate to major river flooding across eastern ND, northeast SD, and far western MN
● Southern Region (NM eastward to TN, GA and FL, as well as Puerto Rico):
○ Heavy rainfall and flash flooding likely across the Gulf Coast on Thursday.
○ Isolated strong to severe storms across the Gulf Coast and Southeast on Thursday and across
Georgia and northern Florida on Friday.
○ Elevated to critical fire weather conditions Friday through the weekend across New Mexico and
parts of West Texas.
○ Near record heat across eastern New Mexico, West Texas, and southwest Oklahoma Saturday
and Sunday.
● Western Region (Intermountain West to the West Coast):
○ Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Washington, eastern
Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana on Thursday
○ Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across eastern Montana
○ Near-record hot temperatures will develop for portions of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest
on Thursday and Friday, with a cooling trend expected for the remainder of the holiday weekend
○ Gusty winds and dry conditions will lead to periods of elevated or critical fire weather concerns
across the southwestern portion of the continental United States through the end of the week and
much of the holiday weekend
○ High elevation snowfall could impact travel across mountains and mountain passes in Oregon,
Idaho, and Montana Saturday night through Tuesday
● Alaska Region (State of AK):
○ A warm and drying trend centers over the Southwest and extends over into Southcentral and
Interior Alaska, bringing fire weather issues across the central and southern mainland Friday and
Saturday.
○ Warm temperatures across the central and eastern Interior will cause an increase in snowmelt and
river levels. Low-lying areas and roads may be susceptible to flooding.
○ Minor flooding due to snowmelt is likely to continue across portions of the northern Copper
River Basin, Innoko River, and in Northway along Moose Creek.
● Pacific Region (including Hawaii, Guam and American Samoa):
○ Hawaii and American Samoa: No significant hazardous weather during the holiday period.
○ Guam: Locally heavy rain possible Friday afternoon with island convection and a slight chance of
thunderstorms returning Memorial Day and Tuesday. Otherwise, no significant hazardous weather during
the holiday period.
Potential Impacts to Air Travel
Air travel delays due to weather conditions during the holiday period:
● Fri, May 27, 2022
○ Boston, La Guardia, John F. Kennedy, Newark, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Dulles, Reagan, Charlotte &
Atlanta – Low Ceilings/Visibility & Thunderstorms
○ Tampa & Orlando – Thunderstorms
○ Las Vegas – Wind
● Sat, May 28, 2022
○ Boston, La Guardia, John F. Kennedy, Newark, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Dulles, Reagan – Low
Ceilings/Visibility
○ Tampa, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale & Miami – Thunderstorms
○ Las Vegas – Wind
● Sun, May 29, 2022
○ Minneapolis, Tampa, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale & Miami – Thunderstorms
○ Las Vegas & San Francisco – Wind
● Mon, May 30, 2022
○ Minneapolis, Denver, Tampa, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale & Miami – Thunderstorms
○ Las Vegas & San Francisco – Wind
**This will be the only hazards outlook produced for the Memorial Day holiday. All weather events during this
time frame that cause significant impacts will be covered in subsequent Significant Event Reports.**
Links:
● Current National NWS Hazards
● NWS Weather Prediction Center – Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
● NWS Storm Prediction Center – Convective Outlooks
● NWS Storm Prediction Center – Fire Weather Outlooks
● NWS Ocean Prediction Center
● NWS National Hurricane Center
● NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) River Forecasts
● NWS Aviation Weather Center
● Eastern Region
● Central Region
● Southern Region
● Western Region
● Alaska Region
● Pacific Region
NOAA Predicts Above-Normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
- To improve the understanding and prediction of how hurricanes intensify, NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab and Pacific Marine Environmental Lab will operate five Saildrone uncrewed surface vehicles during the peak of the 2022 hurricane season and coordinate for the first time with uncrewed ocean gliders, small aircraft drone systems, and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft to measure the ocean, atmosphere and areas where they meet.
- The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Modeling System and Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, which have shown significant skill improvements in terms of storm track and intensity forecasts, have been successfully transitioned to the newest version of the Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System, allowing for uninterrupted operational forecasts.
- The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) has been experimentally extended from three to five days of lead time, giving more notice of rainfall-related flash flooding risks from tropical storms and hurricanes. The ERO forecasts and maps the probability of intense rainfall that could lead to flash flooding within 25 miles of a given point.
- In June, NOAA will enhance an experimental graphic that depicts the Peak Storm Surge Forecast when storm surge watches or warnings are in effect. Upgrades include an updated disclaimer and color coding that illustrates the peak storm surge inundation forecast at the coast. This tool is currently only available in the Atlantic basin.
“Hurricane Ida spanned nine states, demonstrating that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the remnants of a storm system,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready now by visiting Ready.gov and Listo.gov for preparedness tips, and by downloading the FEMA App to make sure you are receiving emergency alerts in real-time.”
National Weather Service: Tropical Update for Next Week
Good afternoon partners –
Given the heightened visibility of the GFS model forecast lately we just wanted to send a quick update regarding potential for tropical development next week.
Here’s what we know:
- One particular model (the GFS) has been consistently forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean, possibly moving into the Gulf of Mexico for several days.
- Some other models do support tropical development of some kind, but both the location of the development (Caribbean vs Eastern Pacific), and the eventual tracks (anywhere from Mexico to Florida) vary.
- The particular model forecast you usually see posted online has been an outlier with respect to the intensity forecast, meaning very few other models or ensemble members indicate strengthening to that extent.
- There are many weather models, and their forecasts can change every 6 hours, especially at longer ranges. No single model forecast should ever be considered on its own.
So what does all of that mean?
- Yes, there is some potential for tropical development in the western Caribbean next week
- No, it does not seem likely that it will strengthen into a hurricane
- It is far too soon to nail down any potential impacts due to the high level of uncertainty in where/when it might develop and where it might move, IF it develops on the Atlantic side at all
Please know that our office WILL send out email updates if/when there is a reasonable threat of tropical activity in the Gulf. In the meantime, you can always monitor the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook. The outlook is updated twice daily and covers development chances over the next five days. Currently, there is no new tropical cyclone development expected in the next five days.
Situational Awareness Report, 29 MARCH 2022 6:30 pm
Situational Awareness Report
29 MARCH 2022
As of 6:30 pm
State EOC Activation Level: Level 4 CAT
WebEOC Incident: 22-015 – Severe Weather – Statewide – MAR2930
SITUATION: Enhanced to moderate risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday morning through evening. Damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail are possible. Greatest risk along and north of I-12/I-10 up to Alexandria with the passage of a squall line. Sustained non-thunderstorm winds 25-35mph with gusts of 50+mph will be possible. A High Wind Warning is in effect for most of southern and south-central Louisiana. Local flash flooding will be possible. Additional rainfall of 1-2”; locally higher amounts in a short period of time could produce localized flooding issues.
STATE ACTIONS: Agencies are monitoring the situation and are on standby as needed.
UPDATES SHOWN IN RED
ESF-05 GOHSEP
· WebEOC Incident: 22-015 – Severe Weather – Statewide – MAR2930 created on 03.28.2022.
· Level 4 CAT Team activated on 03.29.2022.
· Coordinating Unified Command Meetings and Conference Calls as needed.
ESF-03 DOTD Public Works
· For road conditions and closures, please refer to https://www.511la.org/#:Alerts
· For truck permits, please use the following link: http://wwwsp.dotd.la.gov/Business/Pages/DOTD_LaGeaux.aspx
ESF-06 American Red Cross
· Monitoring weather calls, current situational reports, preparing to support incoming WEBEOC requests from agencies and parishes.
· Communicating readiness activities and operational activities with internal division and national leadership.
· Local ARC Disaster Program Managers and Specialists are coordinating with OEP’s and Partners to communicate any needs/requests on shelter, DA, response, etc.
· Louisiana Region ARC has readied materials, manpower, and other resources and is standing by to assist where needed.
ESF-06 DCFS Mass Care
· DCFS is in contact with ARC and DCFS Regional Coordinators are reaching out to Parish OEPs.
ESF-13 Louisiana State Police
· LSP EOC is monitoring the weather, currently at normal operations, and engaged with all partners, ready to activate if needed.
· LSP Mobile Field Force is on alert and prepared to activate as needed.
· Statewide Troops remain on alert for adequate staffing and have been in contact with their local law enforcement partners, as well as DOTD, should any recovery equipment be needed.
· Troopers are ensuring roadways are clear of abandoned vehicles at this time.
· Public Affairs will remain engaged throughout the event to share public safety messaging and any storm related damages timely.
ESF-16 Military Support
· LANG JOC and TAC are monitoring the weather conditions and LANG is prepared to respond if requested.
PARISH ACTIONS:
UPDATES SHOWN IN RED
Region 1
Jefferson Parish
· Schools will be open but no after school activities on 03.30.2022.
St Bernard Parish
· Tying down the debris from last week.
· Monitoring system; will assess and re-evaluate as required. Debris contract picking up and securing as much debris as possible prior to system moving in.
· Instructing VOADs to move all donations/resources inside. Putting essential personnel on alert. Keeping residents update on progress of weather system. No shelter plans in place at this time
Region 2
Ascension Parish
· Public schools will close between 11:30-12:30.
East Baton Rouge Parish
· EBR School System – Virtual Learning
EBR Government Office – Pending-possible early dismissal· All essential employees on stand-by and ready to respond for potential storm hazards. EOC is monitoring and messaging on social media.
· Conducting pre-storm preparations that include checking outfalls to ensure they are clear of obstructions, staging high water barricades, managing water levels at Capital Lake pump station, ongoing storm drain cleaning, and monitoring sand/sandbag locations.
East Feliciana
· Parish monitoring; Parish officials and schools are aware of the upcoming severe weather. Additional calls on any school or government closure will be looked at later this evening or again tomorrow morning.
· DPW crews are on standby.
Iberville Parish
· Public schools will be closed 03.30.2022.
· Parish offices will remain open 03.30.2022.
Livingston Parish
· Parish offices and schools will have early dismissal on 03.30.2022.
· EOC and DPW staff on standby. A shelter has been identified should the need arise
Pointe Coupee Parish
· Schools closed 03.30.2022.
West Baton Rouge Parish
· Schools will be closed 03.30.2022.
West Feliciana
· Schools closed 03.30.2022.
Region 3
Assumption Parish
· Assumption Parish Schools will follow half day schedules tomorrow due to severe weather threat. All School Board Offices will be closed at 1:00 p.m. tomorrow.
St James Parish
· For March 30, 2022
o Head Start and High Schools will dismiss at 1:00pm.
o Elementary Schools will dismiss at 1:30pm.
o Central Office will close at 2:00pm.
· St James government office will we operate normal hours.
St John the Baptist Parish
· Schools are open but no after school activities on 03.30.2022.
Region 4
St. Landry Parish
· Parish Works is staging equipment supplies and will be on standby.
Region 6
Avoyelles Parish
· As of 16:00 Hrs, all schools will be open Possible early dismissal
o All Catholic Schools will be closed tomorrow
· The Police Jury will be closed at 10:00 Am due to High Winds & possibly of tornados.
Catahoula Parish
· Schools will be closed 03.30.2022.
Grant Parish
· Schools will be closed 03.30.2022.
Rapides Parish
· Schools will be closed 03.30.2022.
Region 7
Claiborne Parish
· Schools are currently on Spring Break
Region 8
Caldwell Parish
· Schools are currently on Spring Break
East Carrol Parish
· Schools are currently on Spring Break
Franklin Parish
· Schools are currently on Spring Break
Madison Parish
· Schools are currently on Spring Break
Morehouse Parish
· Schools are currently on Spring Break
Ouachita Parish
· Schools are currently on Spring Break
Richland Parish
· Schools are currently on Spring Break
Union Parish
· Schools are currently on Spring Break
Region 9
St Helena Parish
· Schools are open but no after school activities on 03.30.2022.
St. Tammany Parish
· Schools are open but no after school activities on 03.30.2022.
Tangipahoa Parish
· Schools are open but no after school activities on 03.30.2022.
Washington Parish
· Schools are open but no after school activities on 03.30.2022.
GOHSEP Operations is monitoring the situation and will publish updates as necessary.
For more information, please visit your local NWS weather forecast office webpage.
Increased Risk for Severe Weather 3/21-3/22
The national weather service is monitoring the risk for severe weather over the next 48 hours.
Impacts:
The main threats associated with any severe storms will be:
Tornadoes:
- Tornadoes will be possible, and a few could be strong (EF2+) and/or long track
- There is potential for a significant tornado outbreak.
Damaging Winds:
- Wind gusts greater than 60 mph will be possible.
- Trees and powerlines could be damaged and lead to isolated/scattered power outages
Large Hail:
- Large hail over 1 inch in diameter will be possible
Rainfall
- Generally 2-3 inches Tuesday with locally higher amounts possible
- Rainfall rates of 2-5″ per hour possible, mainly north of I-10/I-12
NWS graphic for 3/21
NWS Graphic for 3/22
NOAA National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Nicholas 1pm Update
GOHSEP daily update August 27, 2021
Click to view report:
NOAA Extreme Weather Sheet (Southeast LA)
Tropical Depression 9 | 5pm EDT Update
(See Graphic Attached)