State Severe Weather Update – March 31, 2023 -7:00 AM

Here is the latest statewide graphic concerning the potential for severe weather today:
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Increased Threat of Severe Weather March 24, 2023

Please be aware that there is an increased risk of severe weather on Friday, March 24.  Please monitor your weather service of choice throughout the day as well as local emergency professionals for the latest updates.

Stay Safe

Sever Weather March 2, 2023

Louisiana faces an increased risk of severe weather and tornadic activity this evening and into the overnight hours.  Please make sure that you have ways to receive weather alerts overnight.

The National Weather Service graphics for severe potential in your area.

State Monitors Weather System Bringing Rainfall Today and Tomorrow

GOHSEP is monitoring a weather system bringing continued rainfall to the state today and tomorrow. The runoff from this additional rainfall may cause flooding from rising waterways, as well as scattered flash flooding.

Flood Watch in effect through Thursday afternoon

Excessive Rainfall Outlook- Slight

 

State Severe Weather & Flooding Graphics – 1/24/23 6AM

Here is the latest statewide graphics concerning the potential for severe weather for today Tuesday, January 24.

WEATHER NOTICE – FREEZING CONDITIONS

Updated Graphics for Winter Weather Threat this week

The National Weather Service (NWS) New Orleans has produced updated weather graphics concerning the significant cold weather threat at the end of the week.  As always, please reference your local Emergency Management office for advice concerning your area.

Dangerous Cold Temperatures Later This Week

A strong cold front will move into the state on Thursday, causing temperatures to drop into the 20s as early as that afternoon. Strong winds with gusts up to forty miles per hour will accompany the front, resulting in wind chills into the teens. Cold temperatures will last into the Christmas weekend. Potential impacts include freezing weather. In some areas, minor snow accumulations cannot be ruled out for Thursday afternoon and night.

State monitoring risk of severe weather Friday and Saturday

GOHSEP is monitoring potential effects associated with a cold front that will be moving into the state tonight.

The northwest part of the state will see an enhanced risk of severe weather tonight, and the northeast, central, and southwest parts of the state will see a slight risk of severe weather into Saturday morning. The southeast part of the state will see a marginal risk of severe weather tomorrow.

Possible impacts include damaging winds, local heavy rainfall, tornadoes, and large hail.

NOAA: Flooding in the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley

Key Points:
  • A multi-day heavy rainfall event is in progress from across the ArkLaTex region this morning. The threat of heavy rainfall leading to flash, urban, and small stream flooding will persist through at least Wednesday from central Texas into the Lower Mississippi River Valley.

    • The Weather Prediction Center has included a Moderate Risk in its Excessive Rainfall Outlook for portions of the ArkLaTex today and tomorrow from northern Louisiana into southeastern Arkansas and western Mississippi.

    • Additional rainfall of 3-6 inches with isolated pockets of 7+ inches is possible over the next 5 days from central Texas to central Mississippi.

    • Isolated minor flooding is possible on rivers in eastern Texas and through the Lower Mississippi Valley.

    • Much of this rainfall will be beneficial and welcome due to the effects of an ongoing drought.

Forecast Details and Additional Impacts:

  • Widespread thunderstorms, with a few locally strong storms capable of producing gusty winds, will be possible today from central Texas across parts of Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi.

Links:.


Information in this report was provided by the Weather Prediction Center and the NWS Southern Region Regional Operations Center.

 
  
NWSOC Mission: The NWS Operations Center provides timely Impact-Based Decision Support Services to meet the evolving needs of NWS partners and stakeholders and supports agency readiness by proactively collaborating and facilitating the exchange of critical information, setting operational posture, and briefing leadership.
 
NWSOC Vision: A Weather-Ready Nation that makes informed and timely decisions based upon the best environmental and situational awareness information achieved through continuous and effective collaboration.

St. Charles Parish officials hope new weather tech will help in storm response and recovery

ST. CHARLES PARISH (WVUE) – It’s been nearly one year since Hurricane Ida made landfall and many are still trying to rebuild. In St. Charles Parish, officials are preparing ahead of the next big storm. They say a new interactive weather station will not only help parish officials with response, but help residents in recovery.

“This is one of 20 weather stations we’ve put out throughout the parish we use internally to help us make decisions when we have severe weather,” said St. Charles Parish President Matthew Jewell. “So whether that’s being able to monitor rain rates and rain accumulations and being able to use that information when we’re engaging our pumping stations or whether we’re in extreme heat advisories and we need to make sure our employees are aware who are working out in the field.”

Jewell said the new weather station technology by WeatherSTEM was installed at the parish’s Emergency Operations Center (EOC), thanks to a grant from the Department of Homeland Security – State Homeland Security Program (SHSP), “which provides funding that supports the implementation of instrumentation dedicated to enhancing resilience against manmade and natural disaster threats.”

He said it will not only help parish officials in making real-time decisions but it’s also public facing, meaning residents will have access to the technology as well.

“One of the big things we saw last year during Hurricane Ida is these insurance companies telling our residents that the weather never got as bad as it did or the wind didn’t get above 80 or 90 mph which simply wasn’t true,” said Jewell.

The new weather station will also store data from past weather events that officials and residents can access.

“This weather station here is ready for 180 mph winds, we have backup generation on it so we know we will be able to collect data from this weather station, we know it’s not going to go down and we know we can give residents the information they need to help fight these insurance companies who are really trying to work over some of these residents.”

When it comes to recovery in St. Charles Parish, Jewell said it’s a long process.

About 80 percent of it got done pretty quickly, and I feel like we’re in that last 20 percent, which is just a day-to-day battle,” he said. “Whether you’re battling with your insurance company or a contractor, or if you didn’t get enough from your insurance company, now it’s not enough to cover materials under this inflation. It’s a constant battle and I think this last 20 percent is going to take a while but we’re taking it one day at a time and that’s just how you gotta get through it.”

In addition to the new weather system, Jewell said the parish is working to repair and enhance all of its technologies and response tools ahead of any major storm that might arise this hurricane season.

“We’re trying to beef up all of our repairs so that they can withstand a Hurricane Ida type of event and we’re also working on a lot of resiliency and redundancy in our critical infrastructure to make sure that when I storm hits, those critical infrastructures don’t go down and we can remain more resilient during the future.”

The weather station offers free weather education for those interested in learning about meteorology and weather events. Click here for more.

Published: Jul. 16, 2022 

Memorial Day 2022 – Weather Hazards Outlook

Forecast Overview and Weather Hazards: (Thursday 5/26 – Tuesday 5/31)

Overview:
● Storm and isolated flooding hazards will be present in areas east of the Mississippi River today, Friday,
and early Saturday as a storm system slowly pushes off of the East Coast by Sunday. A second storm
system will begin to move into the Pacific Northwest today, slowly moving across the Interior West
before stalling across the center of the CONUS by Monday. Impacts such as severe storms, heavy rain,
and higher elevation winter weather will be possible from the Pacific Northwest, across the northern
Plains, and into the upper Midwest Friday into early this upcoming week. Hot and dry conditions will
exist from the Southwest into the southern Plains through the period. Minor to isolated major river
flooding impacts are expected to continue over the Northern Plains. Minor river flooding impacts will
continue over the Central Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend.

 

Thursday:
● A risk of isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will be present from the central Gulf Coast to
the southern Appalachians. The greatest threat of widespread flash flooding will exist along the coasts of
Alabama and Mississippi into the far western Florida Panhandle.
● Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over Ohio and portions of eastern Oregon, southeast
Washington, northern and central Idaho, and western Montana. Strong wind gusts and large hail are the
primary severe hazards.
● Elevated fire weather conditions will be in place over the Great Basin Thursday afternoon.

Friday:
● Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the Carolinas northward into eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey as well as eastern Montana, northern Wyoming, and the western Dakotas.
Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat with the stronger storms.
● Unsettled weather conditions are forecast to continue in the Pacific Northwest.
● Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over portions of the Great Basin and Southwest.
Saturday:
● Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across the north-central CONUS.
● As surface winds increase across the southern High Plains, the fire weather threat will increase to critical
levels.
● Record breaking warm temperatures are forecasted from the central to southern Plains.
● Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will also be present over portions of the Southwest, Great
Basin, and southern California as strong winds and very dry conditions develop.
● Several rounds of showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow are expected across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Intermountain West.

Sunday:
● Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible from the central Plains into the western Great Lakes.
● Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist across the southern High Plains and much of the
Southwest as strong winds continue.
● Wintry precipitation will impact travel across the northern Rockies of Montana and Idaho and higher
elevations of the Pacific Northwest.
● Record warm temperatures will be present across Texas.
Monday:
● Wintry precipitation could impact travel in the northern Rockies of Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming.
● Elevated to critical fire weather conditions may persist over portions of the Southwest as gusty
conditions prevail.
● Heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flash flooding in the Northern High Plains and Upper Midwest.
Tuesday:
● Storms with heavy rainfall will be possible from the Plains into the upper Midwest.
● Early season heat with possible record temperatures is possible across the lower Great Lakes into the
Ohio Valley.

NWS Regional Breakdown:
● Eastern Region (East Coast from ME to SC, Lower Great Lakes, OH and WV):

○ Thursday, strong to severe thunderstorms may produce heavy rain from the southern
Appalachians in the Carolinas to the Ohio Valley. Potential threats include locally damaging
winds, hail, a few tornadoes and heavy rainfall.

○ Friday, strong to severe thunderstorms move east and will impact much of the east coast, from
the Carolinas, through the Mid Atlantic and into the northeast. Potential threats will once again
include locally damaging winds, hail, a few tornadoes and heavy rainfall.

○ Saturday, lingering showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of the Mid Atlantic and into
the northeast. Heavy downpours and locally gusty winds will be the primary threats, focused in
New England.

○ No significant weather is expected Sunday into Monday.
○ A few strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the northeast late Monday into Tuesday.
○ Heat will build across much of the eastern U.S. Monday and Tuesday.

● Central Region (Dakotas, WY and CO eastward to MI, IN and KY):
○ Severe weather concerns through Sunday across the Dakotas eastward into MN/IA
○ Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across southern CO through the weekend
○ Moderate to major river flooding across eastern ND, northeast SD, and far western MN

● Southern Region (NM eastward to TN, GA and FL, as well as Puerto Rico):
○ Heavy rainfall and flash flooding likely across the Gulf Coast on Thursday.
○ Isolated strong to severe storms across the Gulf Coast and Southeast on Thursday and across
Georgia and northern Florida on Friday.
○ Elevated to critical fire weather conditions Friday through the weekend across New Mexico and
parts of West Texas.
○ Near record heat across eastern New Mexico, West Texas, and southwest Oklahoma Saturday
and Sunday.

● Western Region (Intermountain West to the West Coast):
○ Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Washington, eastern
Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana on Thursday
○ Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across eastern Montana
○ Near-record hot temperatures will develop for portions of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest
on Thursday and Friday, with a cooling trend expected for the remainder of the holiday weekend
○ Gusty winds and dry conditions will lead to periods of elevated or critical fire weather concerns
across the southwestern portion of the continental United States through the end of the week and
much of the holiday weekend
○ High elevation snowfall could impact travel across mountains and mountain passes in Oregon,
Idaho, and Montana Saturday night through Tuesday

● Alaska Region (State of AK):
○ A warm and drying trend centers over the Southwest and extends over into Southcentral and
Interior Alaska, bringing fire weather issues across the central and southern mainland Friday and
Saturday.

○ Warm temperatures across the central and eastern Interior will cause an increase in snowmelt and
river levels. Low-lying areas and roads may be susceptible to flooding.
○ Minor flooding due to snowmelt is likely to continue across portions of the northern Copper
River Basin, Innoko River, and in Northway along Moose Creek.

● Pacific Region (including Hawaii, Guam and American Samoa):
○ Hawaii and American Samoa: No significant hazardous weather during the holiday period.
○ Guam: Locally heavy rain possible Friday afternoon with island convection and a slight chance of
thunderstorms returning Memorial Day and Tuesday. Otherwise, no significant hazardous weather during
the holiday period.

Potential Impacts to Air Travel
Air travel delays due to weather conditions during the holiday period:

● Fri, May 27, 2022
○ Boston, La Guardia, John F. Kennedy, Newark, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Dulles, Reagan, Charlotte &
Atlanta – Low Ceilings/Visibility & Thunderstorms
○ Tampa & Orlando – Thunderstorms
○ Las Vegas – Wind

● Sat, May 28, 2022
○ Boston, La Guardia, John F. Kennedy, Newark, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Dulles, Reagan – Low
Ceilings/Visibility
○ Tampa, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale & Miami – Thunderstorms
○ Las Vegas – Wind

● Sun, May 29, 2022
○ Minneapolis, Tampa, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale & Miami – Thunderstorms
○ Las Vegas & San Francisco – Wind

● Mon, May 30, 2022
○ Minneapolis, Denver, Tampa, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale & Miami – Thunderstorms
○ Las Vegas & San Francisco – Wind

**This will be the only hazards outlook produced for the Memorial Day holiday. All weather events during this
time frame that cause significant impacts will be covered in subsequent Significant Event Reports.**

Links:
● Current National NWS Hazards
● NWS Weather Prediction Center – Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
● NWS Storm Prediction Center – Convective Outlooks
● NWS Storm Prediction Center – Fire Weather Outlooks
● NWS Ocean Prediction Center
● NWS National Hurricane Center
● NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) River Forecasts
● NWS Aviation Weather Center
● Eastern Region
● Central Region
● Southern Region
● Western Region
● Alaska Region
● Pacific Region

 

NOAA Predicts Above-Normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Ongoing La Niña, above-average Atlantic temperatures set the stage for busy season ahead

2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with 70% confidence.
“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around the clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.”  
The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons. The way in which climate change impacts the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is a continuous area of study for NOAA scientists.
“As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past storms — such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area ten years ago —remind us that the impact of one storm can be felt for years,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “Since Sandy, NOAA’s forecasting accuracy has continued to improve, allowing us to better predict the impacts of major hurricanes to lives and livelihoods.”
Additionally, NOAA has enhanced the following products and services this hurricane season:

“Hurricane Ida spanned nine states, demonstrating that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the remnants of a storm system,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready now by visiting Ready.gov and Listo.gov for preparedness tips, and by downloading the FEMA App to make sure you are receiving emergency alerts in real-time.”

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA has also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific hurricane basins. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2022 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.

National Weather Service: Tropical Update for Next Week

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Good afternoon partners –

Given the heightened visibility of the GFS model forecast lately we just wanted to send a quick update regarding potential for tropical development next week.

Here’s what we know:

  • One particular model (the GFS) has been consistently forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean, possibly moving into the Gulf of Mexico for several days.
  • Some other models do support tropical development of some kind, but both the location of the development (Caribbean vs Eastern Pacific), and the eventual tracks (anywhere from Mexico to Florida) vary.
  • The particular model forecast you usually see posted online has been an outlier with respect to the intensity forecast, meaning very few other models or ensemble members indicate strengthening to that extent.
  • There are many weather models, and their forecasts can change every 6 hours, especially at longer ranges. No single model forecast should ever be considered on its own.

So what does all of that mean?

  • Yes, there is some potential for tropical development in the western Caribbean next week
  • No, it does not seem likely that it will strengthen into a hurricane
  • It is far too soon to nail down any potential impacts due to the high level of uncertainty in where/when it might develop and where it might move, IF it develops on the Atlantic side at all

Please know that our office WILL send out email updates if/when there is a reasonable threat of tropical activity in the Gulf.  In the meantime, you can always monitor the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook. The outlook is updated twice daily and covers development chances over the next five days. Currently, there is no new tropical cyclone development expected in the next five days.

Situational Awareness Report, 29 MARCH 2022 6:30 pm

Situational Awareness Report

29 MARCH 2022

As of 6:30 pm

State EOC Activation Level: Level 4 CAT

WebEOC Incident: 22-015 – Severe Weather – Statewide – MAR2930

 

SITUATION:  Enhanced to moderate risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday morning through evening. Damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail are possible. Greatest risk along and north of I-12/I-10 up to Alexandria with the passage of a squall line. Sustained non-thunderstorm winds 25-35mph with gusts of 50+mph will be possible. A High Wind Warning is in effect for most of southern and south-central Louisiana. Local flash flooding will be possible. Additional rainfall of 1-2”; locally higher amounts in a short period of time could produce localized flooding issues.

 

STATE ACTIONS: Agencies are monitoring the situation and are on standby as needed.

UPDATES SHOWN IN RED

 

ESF-05 GOHSEP

·         WebEOC Incident: 22-015 – Severe Weather – Statewide – MAR2930 created on 03.28.2022.

·         Level 4 CAT Team activated on 03.29.2022.

·         Coordinating Unified Command Meetings and Conference Calls as needed.

ESF-03 DOTD Public Works

·         For road conditions and closures, please refer to https://www.511la.org/#:Alerts

·         For truck permits, please use the following link: http://wwwsp.dotd.la.gov/Business/Pages/DOTD_LaGeaux.aspx

ESF-06 American Red Cross

·         Monitoring weather calls, current situational reports, preparing to support incoming WEBEOC requests from agencies and parishes.

·         Communicating readiness activities and operational activities with internal division and national leadership.

·         Local ARC Disaster Program Managers and Specialists are coordinating with OEP’s and Partners to communicate any needs/requests on shelter, DA, response, etc.

·         Louisiana Region ARC has readied materials, manpower, and other resources and is standing by to assist where needed.

ESF-06 DCFS Mass Care

·          DCFS is in contact with ARC and DCFS Regional Coordinators are reaching out to Parish OEPs.

ESF-13 Louisiana State Police

·         LSP EOC is monitoring the weather, currently at normal operations, and engaged with all partners, ready to activate if needed.

·         LSP Mobile Field Force is on alert and prepared to activate as needed.

·         Statewide Troops remain on alert for adequate staffing and have been in contact with their local law enforcement partners, as well as DOTD, should any recovery equipment be needed.

·         Troopers are ensuring roadways are clear of abandoned vehicles at this time.

·         Public Affairs will remain engaged throughout the event to share public safety messaging and any storm related damages timely.

ESF-16 Military Support

·          LANG JOC and TAC are monitoring the weather conditions and LANG is prepared to respond if requested.  

PARISH ACTIONS:

UPDATES SHOWN IN RED

 

Region 1

Jefferson Parish

·         Schools will be open but no after school activities on 03.30.2022.

St Bernard Parish

·         Tying down the debris from last week.

·         Monitoring system; will assess and re-evaluate as required. Debris contract picking up and securing as much debris as possible prior to system moving in.

·         Instructing VOADs to move all donations/resources inside. Putting essential personnel on alert. Keeping residents update on progress of weather system. No shelter plans in place at this time

Region 2

Ascension Parish

·         Public schools will close between 11:30-12:30.

East Baton Rouge Parish

·         EBR School System – Virtual LearningEBR Government Office – Pending-possible early dismissal

·         All essential employees on stand-by and ready to respond for potential storm hazards. EOC is monitoring and messaging on social media.

·         Conducting pre-storm preparations that include checking outfalls to ensure they are clear of obstructions, staging high water barricades, managing water levels at Capital Lake pump station, ongoing storm drain cleaning, and monitoring sand/sandbag locations.

East Feliciana

·         Parish monitoring; Parish officials and schools are aware of the upcoming severe weather.  Additional calls on any school or government closure will be looked at later this evening or again tomorrow morning.

·         DPW crews are on standby.

Iberville Parish

·         Public schools will be closed 03.30.2022.

·         Parish offices will remain open 03.30.2022.

Livingston Parish

·         Parish offices and schools will have early dismissal on 03.30.2022.

·          EOC and DPW staff on standby. A shelter has been identified should the need arise

Pointe Coupee Parish

·         Schools closed 03.30.2022.

West Baton Rouge Parish

·         Schools will be closed 03.30.2022.

West Feliciana

·         Schools closed 03.30.2022.

Region 3

Assumption Parish

·         Assumption Parish Schools will follow half day schedules tomorrow due to severe weather threat. All School Board Offices will be closed at 1:00 p.m. tomorrow.

 

St James Parish

·         For March 30, 2022

o   Head Start and High Schools will dismiss at 1:00pm.

o   Elementary Schools will dismiss at 1:30pm.

o   Central Office will close at 2:00pm.

·         St James government office will we operate normal hours.

 

St John the Baptist Parish

·         Schools are open but no after school activities on 03.30.2022.

 

Region 4

St. Landry Parish

·         Parish Works is staging equipment supplies and will be on standby.

 

Region 6

Avoyelles Parish

·          As of 16:00 Hrs, all schools will be open Possible early dismissal

o   All Catholic Schools will be closed tomorrow

·         The Police Jury will be closed at 10:00 Am due to High Winds & possibly of tornados.

Catahoula Parish

·         Schools will be closed 03.30.2022.

Grant Parish

·         Schools will be closed 03.30.2022.

Rapides Parish

·         Schools will be closed 03.30.2022.

Region 7

Claiborne Parish

·         Schools are currently on Spring Break

Region 8

Caldwell Parish

·         Schools are currently on Spring Break

 

East Carrol Parish

·         Schools are currently on Spring Break

 

Franklin Parish

·         Schools are currently on Spring Break

 

Madison Parish

·         Schools are currently on Spring Break

 

Morehouse Parish

·         Schools are currently on Spring Break

 

Ouachita Parish

·         Schools are currently on Spring Break

 

Richland Parish

·         Schools are currently on Spring Break

 

Union Parish

·         Schools are currently on Spring Break

Region 9

St Helena Parish

·         Schools are open but no after school activities on 03.30.2022.

St. Tammany Parish

·         Schools are open but no after school activities on 03.30.2022.

Tangipahoa Parish

·         Schools are open but no after school activities on 03.30.2022.

Washington Parish

·         Schools are open but no after school activities on 03.30.2022.

GOHSEP Operations is monitoring the situation and will publish updates as necessary.

For more information, please visit your local NWS weather forecast office webpage.

www.getagameplan.org | www.weather.gov |www.ready.gov

Increased Risk for Severe Weather 3/21-3/22

The national weather service is monitoring the risk for severe weather over the next 48 hours.

Impacts:

The main threats associated with any severe storms will be:

Tornadoes:

  • Tornadoes will be possible, and a few could be strong (EF2+) and/or long track
  • There is potential for a significant tornado outbreak.

Damaging Winds:

  • Wind gusts greater than 60 mph will be possible.
  • Trees and powerlines could be damaged and lead to isolated/scattered power outages

Large Hail:

  • Large hail over 1 inch in diameter will be possible

Rainfall

  • Generally 2-3 inches Tuesday with locally higher amounts possible
  • Rainfall rates of 2-5″ per hour possible, mainly north of I-10/I-12

NWS graphic for 3/21

 

NWS Graphic for 3/22

 

NOAA National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Nicholas 1pm Update

..NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS…
…FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS TODAY…
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Sabine Pass
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana
* Corpus Christi Bay
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in southern Texas through the next few hours. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon or this evening.
A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight across the middle and upper Texas coast.
At 1 p.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located over the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas about 70 miles (115 km) south-southeast of Port Aransas and about 105 miles (165 km) south of Port O’Connor. Nicholas is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will continue to pass just offshore of the coast of south Texas this afternoon and move onshore along the coast of central Texas later this evening.
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42020 located southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). Strengthening is forecast to take place this afternoon and evening, and Nicholas could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the northwest Gulf coast. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
– Port O’Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay…3-5 ft
– San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
– Baffin Bay to Port O’Connor, TX…2-4 ft
– Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay…2-4 ft
– Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay…1-3 ft
– Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…1-3 ft
– Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake…1-3 ft
Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the middle of the week. Life-threatening, flash and urban flooding impacts are possible, especially across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast near Lake Jackson and Freeport, TX. Across the rest of southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding..
Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office – www.weather.gov
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 4 p.m. CDT – www.hurricanes.gov

GOHSEP daily update August 27, 2021

Click to view report:

210827-SITREP

NOAA Extreme Weather Sheet (Southeast LA)

Click to access Southeast-Louisiana.pdf

Tropical Depression 9 | 5pm EDT Update

(See Graphic Attached)