The forecasts for the pending cold weather have gotten much clearer. Please take all necessary precautions over the next 48 hours to protect yourselves, your employees, and your facilities. Below is a link to last night’s update from GOHSEP provided for your situational awareness.
SITREP 730 PM – Winter Weather 24-006 14 Jan 2024 FINAL
Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or concerns.
It appears that what has now become known as TD Nine (will it be Harold?) has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Current forecast tracks have it strengthening to Tropical Storm force winds in the next 24-36 hours and making landfall in the Corpus Christi, Texas, vicinity. Louisiana may only receive some much-needed rainfall along the coast associated with TD 9.
Figure 1 – Seven-day forecast as of August 21, 2023
As mentioned last week, as we near the high point of historical tropical activity (September 10), the tropics have now come alive. As you can see from Figure 1 above, we now have five (5) areas to watch. The quick summary as of August 21, 2023, is Franklin is likely to turn due north soon and impact Hispaniola, then pass between the continental US and Bermuda, then head out to sea. Gert is likely to turn north as well and head into the northern Atlantic east of Bermuda. Emily and the unnamed weather blob to the east are likely to follow Gert’s path into the northern Atlantic. As always, please monitor official NOAA and NWS forecasts for decision-making purposes.
Louisiana faces an increased risk of severe weather and tornadic activity this evening and into the overnight hours. Please make sure that you have ways to receive weather alerts overnight.
The National Weather Service graphics for severe potential in your area.
The National Weather Service (NWS) New Orleans has produced updated weather graphics concerning the significant cold weather threat at the end of the week. As always, please reference your local Emergency Management office for advice concerning your area.
A strong cold front will move into the state on Thursday, causing temperatures to drop into the 20s as early as that afternoon. Strong winds with gusts up to forty miles per hour will accompany the front, resulting in wind chills into the teens. Cold temperatures will last into the Christmas weekend. Potential impacts include freezing weather. In some areas, minor snow accumulations cannot be ruled out for Thursday afternoon and night.
The national weather service is monitoring the risk for severe weather over the next 48 hours.
Impacts:
The main threats associated with any severe storms will be:
Tornadoes:
Damaging Winds:
Large Hail:
Rainfall
NWS graphic for 3/21
NWS Graphic for 3/22
Click to view report:
As we say goodbye to Fred, we turn our attention to Grace. Grace appears to be taking a southern track across the Gulf of Mexico, across the Yucatan pennisula, and finally making landfall in Mexico or the extreme southern part of Texas. Grace will make no impact on Louisiana, according to official NHC forecasts. Henri developed in the last 24 hours and will be touring the Island of Bermuda over the next 48 hours, no affects to Louisiana forecasted. There is a wave coming off the western coast of Africa, but there is no development forecasted over the next 48 hours. Stay safe and stay tuned.
FRED and GRACE part two…
Fred appears to have lost his way and his course is now sliding to the west. Fred’s visit to Caribbean island had a sever impact on his health, resulting in a more westerly circulation forming coming out of the Florida straight. Current National Hurricane Center forecasts have Fred strengthening back to tropical storm status and making landfall along the Alabama coast near Grand Bay. Louisiana now is in the cone of uncertainty as Fred will likely rain and tropical storm force winds to the extreme southeastern coast of Louisiana as early as Monday morning, with landfall sometime Monday evening or early Tuesday morning. Please monitor your local officials for guidance as Fred approaches the area.
Grace has now reached Tropical Storm status and is currently in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands. The current forecast track brings Grace in contact with Hispaniola by Monday morning. The mountainous terrain there should have a negative effect on further development through Tuesday. Grace’s forecast has her travel along the entire length of Cuban and entering the Gulf as a tropical storm by Thursday morning. If Grace remains on current tract, Louisiana is likely to be in the forecasted cone.
As always, whether we are talking about Fred, Grace or any future storm, please listen to your local emergency officials for guidance.
I thought it was Fred and Wilma not Fred and Grace, but the 2021 hurricane season brings us this unlikely couple.
Fred continues across the northern Caribbean. The interaction with mountainous regions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti have reduced Fred’s ability to strengthen. The current forecast take Fred through the Florida straight Saturday morning and making landfall as strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. Effects to Louisiana remain minimal with the current forecast.
Potential Tropical storm 7, to be named Grace if she reaches that level remains far out in the Atlantic. Current forecasts show that “Grace” has a 60% chance of reaching Tropical Storm status in the next 5 days. Potential storm track at this point, appears similar to Fred’s track. Stay tuned to your local emergency management personnel for official guidance.
Official forecasts taken from the National Hurricane Center and are available at this link, NHC
Overnight, Tropical Storm Fred makes his debut. Fred currently has 40 mph winds and is traveling west northwest at 16 mph. His current path takes him north of the Caribbean islands and into the Florida straight by Saturday morning. If current forecasts remain accurate, then Fred will make landfall near Apalachicola Florida early in the morning of Monday August 16, 2021. The 0800 projected storm path is below. Please stay tuned to local emergency officials for any changes to the forecast.
Two disturbances in the Atlantic have potential for further development over the next 5-days. While there is no immediate threat to Louisiana, the potential is there in the next 7-10 days. Everyone should remain vigilant and listen to guidance provide by your local emergency officials.
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is well underway, and atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain conducive for an above-average hurricane season, according to the annual mid-season update issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.
The latest outlook reflects that the number of expected named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater) is 15-21, including 7-10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), of which 3-5 could become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds 111 mph or greater). This updated outlook includes the 5 named storms that have formed so far, with Hurricane Elsa becoming the earliest 5th named storm on record.
“After a record-setting start, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead,” said Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. “NOAA will continue to provide the science and services that are foundational to keeping communities prepared for any threatening storm.”
NOAA scientists predict that the likelihood of an above-normal 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is 65%. There is a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
“A mix of competing oceanic and atmospheric conditions generally favor above-average activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, including the potential return of La Nina in the months ahead,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Atlantic sea surface temperatures are not expected to be as warm as they were during the record-breaking 2020 season; however, reduced vertical wind shear and an enhanced west Africa monsoon all contribute to the current conditions that can increase seasonal hurricane activity. These conditions are set against the backdrop of the ongoing warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which has been favoring more active hurricane seasons since 1995.
“Now is the time for families and communities to ensure their preparations are in place,” said National Weather Service Director Louis W. Uccellini, Ph.D. “These storms can be devastating, so be prepared for all possible outcomes by staying tuned to the forecast and following safety information and possible evacuation notifications issued by emergency officials.”
NOAA’s update to the 2021 outlook covers the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30. Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) provides the hurricane track and intensity forecasts that emergency managers and communities rely on across areas at risk during a landfalling storm. NHC is the source for all watches and warnings for tropical storms, hurricanes, and related storm surge. The seasonal outlook from NOAA is not a landfall forecast as landfalls are typically only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.
Learn more about NOAA’s comprehensive expertise across all aspects of hurricane science and forecasting with our Hurricane Resource Guide on NOAA.gov. Visit FEMA’s Ready.gov for the latest information about hurricane preparedness and evacuation safety.
Media Contact
Lauren Gaches, Lauren.Gaches@noaa.gov, 202-740-8314
Originally posted on www.noaa.gov
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Earlier this afternoon and evening, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigated the low pressure system off the east
coast of Florida and found a well-defined center of circulation
about 185 miles east of Cape Canaveral. However, the system still
lacks organized shower and thunderstorm activity near its center
and therefore has not met the criteria to be designated as a
tropical depression. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain marginally conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression could still form overnight or on Sunday while
the low moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph toward the east
coast of Florida. Interests in Florida should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system Sunday morning, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
July 22, 2021 – Severe thunderstorms can be life-threatening, but not all severe storms are the same. Hazardous conditions range from tornadoes, large hail storms, and widespread straight-line winds called derechoes, to cloud-to-ground lightning and flash flooding. Starting July 28, the National Weather Service will better convey the severity and potential impacts from thunderstorm winds and hail by adding a “damage threat” tag to Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, similar to our Tornado and Flash Flood Warnings.
“Destructive” and “Considerable” Damage Threat Categories
We developed three categories of damage threat for Severe Thunderstorm Warnings to distinguish between high-impact and low-impact events. The categories, in order of highest to lowest damage threat, are destructive, considerable, and base. These tags and additional messaging are designed to promote immediate action, based on the threats.
On average, only 10 percent of all severe thunderstorms reach the destructive category each year, nationwide. Most of these storms are damaging wind events such as derechoes and some of the larger, more intense thunderstorms, called “Supercell” storms that can typically produce very large hail in their path. The new destructive thunderstorm category conveys to the public urgent action is needed, a life-threatening event is occurring and may cause substantial damage to property. Storms categorized as destructive will trigger a WEA to your cell phone.
All National Weather Service Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will continue to be issued and distributed via weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio, Emergency Alert System and through dissemination systems to our emergency managers and partners. The addition of damage threat tags are part of the broader Hazard Simplification Project to improve communication of watches and warnings to the public.
Thirteen of the 22 costliest weather disasters in 2020 were severe thunderstorms. The new “destructive” tag would have activated a Wireless Emergency Alert for many of these impactful events, including the costliest thunderstorm in U.S. history, the $11 billion derecho that affected Iowa in August 2020.
Learn how to stay safe in a severe thunderstorm. Knowing what to do before, during, and after severe weather can increase your chances of survival.
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center provides forecasts of severe weather up to seven days in advance, and severe thunderstorm and tornado watches several hours before storms form.
Explore our Severe Weather 101 webpage.
