Hurricane Rafael is approaching the Western Cuba coast over the next 12–18 hours, possibly as a Major (CAT 3) storm. As it enters the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will begin to take a more westerly turn. As with yesterday’s update, beyond 72 hours, there remains much uncertainty about the tract. As of this update, the “European” model seems to be the dominant theme, with an almost due westerly turn and significantly weakening. The good news is the longer the storm stays over the gulf, the more it will interact with the strong upper-level winds that weaken the system.
As you can see from the updated NHC graphic, Rafael will travel almost parallel to the coast in the coming days. The threat to Louisiana is decreasing.
As more information becomes available, I will let everyone know.
Respectfully,
Jim Williams, LEM-B, MBA
Public-Private Partnership Operations Officer
Louisiana Business Emergency Operations Center
Informatics Research Institute
University of Louisiana at Lafayette – A Carnegie R1 Research University
( Office: (337) 482-0633
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