Good afternoon partners –
Given the heightened visibility of the GFS model forecast lately we just wanted to send a quick update regarding potential for tropical development next week.
Here’s what we know:
- One particular model (the GFS) has been consistently forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean, possibly moving into the Gulf of Mexico for several days.
- Some other models do support tropical development of some kind, but both the location of the development (Caribbean vs Eastern Pacific), and the eventual tracks (anywhere from Mexico to Florida) vary.
- The particular model forecast you usually see posted online has been an outlier with respect to the intensity forecast, meaning very few other models or ensemble members indicate strengthening to that extent.
- There are many weather models, and their forecasts can change every 6 hours, especially at longer ranges. No single model forecast should ever be considered on its own.
So what does all of that mean?
- Yes, there is some potential for tropical development in the western Caribbean next week
- No, it does not seem likely that it will strengthen into a hurricane
- It is far too soon to nail down any potential impacts due to the high level of uncertainty in where/when it might develop and where it might move, IF it develops on the Atlantic side at all
Please know that our office WILL send out email updates if/when there is a reasonable threat of tropical activity in the Gulf. In the meantime, you can always monitor the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook. The outlook is updated twice daily and covers development chances over the next five days. Currently, there is no new tropical cyclone development expected in the next five days.