Winter Weather Outlook for Next Week based on Thursday tools:
Remember .. the NWS houses the weather expertise. These are my opinions.
An Arctic cold front will slide NW-to-SE across Louisiana, ushering what will likely be even colder air than experienced last week. However, precipitation late Friday into Saturday (Jan 17-18) will all be in the form of rain.
Expect freezes for Sunday morning across the northern half of the state as very cold and very dry air (low dewpoints) pours in from the north. Sunday highs will only get into the 40°s for most of the state.
After that, it’s ‘hard freezes likely’ for all but coastal communities and metro New Orleans for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday mornings. Lows will dip into the low 20°s across the northern half of the state for those mornings with some locations flirting with lows in the ‘teens on one or more of the three days. Tuesday morning looks to be the coldest of the three, with windchills potentially getting down to near 10° in spots.
Based on the current NWS guidance, daytime temperatures are expected to get above freezing each of the three days – if only briefly. However, absolute minimums and overnight freeze durations (15-20 hours possible for northern parishes) will exceed what Louisiana experienced a week ago. As a result, EMers should be prepared for the consequences of unprotected pipes as well as poorly-insulated and inadequately-heated homes as people struggle to stay warm.
It now looks like the main winter-precipitation threat will extend from Monday evening through Tuesday and potentially into early Wednesday. A wintry mix, very likely as all snow, will begin to move into NW Louisiana as early as Monday evening. Snow is expected to extend to the east and southeast through Monday night into Tuesday morning. NOAA Blend of Models (NBM) forecasts call for the potential of 1” to 2” accumulations across the northern half of the state, with locally higher amounts, by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Guidance hints at nearly a 50-50 chance of measurable snow extending to, or even south, of the I-10/12 corridor with a low-end potential for snow totals of up to 1” reaching areas like Baton Rouge and Lafayette.
Travel hazards will begin Monday evening and spread across the state by early Tuesday, lingering into Wednesday for many parishes. Plan for widespread closures on Tuesday, possibly extending into Wednesday, especially across the northern and central parishes.
Most Likely (for now):
– widespread 1″-2″ snow totals with pockets of 3+” for northern half of state … minor accumulations possible along and south of the I-10/12
– minor icing concern statewide … although, at least at the start of the event, the threat of freezing rain is lower than the threat of snow for most parishes
Most Dangerous:
– some guidance more than doubles these snow estimates in parts of the state
– significant icing (0.1″ or more) concern statewide, although more so for the southern parishes
Remember: the outlook for last week was far more concerning than that event proved to be. While the level of confidence for winter-precipitation is higher with this forecast (as of this afternoon) compared to Jan 8-10, the reality is that winter forecasting for Louisiana is tricky. Be prepared for changes in the outlook as the event draws nearer.
Jay Grymes
State Climatologist
cell: 225-505-6916
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