..NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS…
…FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS TODAY…
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Sabine Pass
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana
* Corpus Christi Bay
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in southern Texas through the next few hours. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon or this evening.
A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight across the middle and upper Texas coast.
At 1 p.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located over the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas about 70 miles (115 km) south-southeast of Port Aransas and about 105 miles (165 km) south of Port O’Connor. Nicholas is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will continue to pass just offshore of the coast of south Texas this afternoon and move onshore along the coast of central Texas later this evening.
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42020 located southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). Strengthening is forecast to take place this afternoon and evening, and Nicholas could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the northwest Gulf coast. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
– Port O’Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay…3-5 ft
– San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
– Baffin Bay to Port O’Connor, TX…2-4 ft
– Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay…2-4 ft
– Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay…1-3 ft
– Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…1-3 ft
– Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake…1-3 ft
Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the middle of the week. Life-threatening, flash and urban flooding impacts are possible, especially across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast near Lake Jackson and Freeport, TX. Across the rest of southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding..
Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office – www.weather.gov
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 4 p.m. CDT – www.hurricanes.gov