NHC is still listing development odds at only 40% for days 3-7 for the broad region they have been highlighting for days. The development area extends from the western Caribbean to the central Gulf.
There is no invest designation yet and it could be a couple of days before the NHC tags one. Remember: without an invest, we don’t get to see the collection of modelcasts that we call “spaghetti plots.”
Ensemble runs of the EPS/ECMWF (European) and GEFS/GFS (American) models continue to suggest that two areas of low pressure will develop in the region. The first low will likely head for the SW Gulf; the second low, coming from the southern Caribbean, looks like it will move into the central Gulf. Both models seem to focus more on the second low as the precursor for any possible tropical development in the Gulf.
There remains a huge amount of uncertainty beyond just the modest 40% chance for tropical organization over the next 7 days. Ensemble trajectories are widely dispersed across the Gulf with many of the runs from both models suggesting a meandering or stalling of the system over the open Gulf waters.
In addition, there is a suggestion of a cold front approaching from the northwest late in the period, serving as a blocking mechanism for Louisiana with the system ultimately shunted to the east.
With so many unknowns, it’s just watch-and-wait time. Take a few deep breaths and let’s not focus too much on this until we see some better signs for concern. Forecast confidence is very low … but I have a hunch that this will not be a problem for Louisiana.
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Opinions are mine … the NHC and NWS are the experts and provide the official forecasts.
Credits & Thanks to:
NHC & local NWS offices
TropicalTidbits
WeatherNerds
WeatherBell
WeatherModels
… thanks to GOHSEP and LSU for their support
FW_ Tropics Update_ Tuesday Morning10.1
John M. (“Jay”) Grymes III
State Climatologist
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