Happy Election Day. There has not been a lot of difference in the forecasts since the last update. A significant difference in the forecast track remains beyond 72 hours. The American Model (GFS) appears to bring a weakened system to the Louisiana Coast on Friday evening; the European Model shows a left turn (westward) after leaving Cuba and dissipating in the western gulf. Both models agree that as the system approaches the cost, it will be significantly affected by the upper-level winds, which will “rip the top off” the system, causing it to weaken.
According to the NWS Lake Charles office, the earliest the Louisiana Coast can expect bad weather is Thursday evening, with the most likely time being Friday late morning to about noon. Please note under the heading of the attached graphic that NWS – LC has low confidence in the forecast track as of 0904 this morning.
As the situation changes I will update everyone.
Respectfully,
Jim Williams, LEM-B, MBA, Public-Private Partnership Operations Officer
Louisiana Business Emergency Operations Center
Informatics Research Institute
University of Louisiana at Lafayette – A Carnegie R1 Research University
( Office: (337) 482-0633
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