Tropics Update: Tuesday 5 AM
– TS Rafael — max winds of 60 mph — strengthening as it heads for Cuba
– NHC has Rafael as ‘Cat 1’ this evening and a ‘Cat 2’ on Wednesday before reaching Cuba
– NHC puts Rafael in the SE Gulf as low-end Category 2 on Wednesday evening
– still anticipating slow weakening beginning on/by Thursday
– NHC currently drops Rafael to TS intensity by 12 AM Saturday
– still anticipating reduced forward speed as it crosses central Gulf
– forecast uncertainty increases dramatically from Friday into the weekend … w
ide spread in forecast paths
NOTE: latest NHC TS Arrival Times for SE Louisiana still appear to be more than a day ahead of my expectations based on latest NHC forecast track/cone and Forecast Advisory wind field envelopes
Thoughts as of 5 AM Tuesday:
(1) rains/showers for much of the state for elections … occasional stronger t-storms possible for northern & central LA but minimal severe threat as front stalls over the state
(2) high uncertainty for Rafael in terms of intensity and location for the weekend … LA threat for significant tropical impact seems low to very low … I’m thinking that TS winds may not reach the coast … coastal flooding could be an issue
(3) primary concern will be rain rather than wind for GameDay … and I’m thinking that even the heavy rain threat is low to very low
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Opinions are mine …
The NHC and NWS are the experts who provide the official forecasts.
Credits & Thanks to:
National Hurricane Center
local NWS offices serving Louisiana
WeatherNerds
WeatherBell
TropicalTidbits
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