The National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service continue to monitor an area of low pressure in the northern Gulf of America, designated Invest AL97.
As of this morning, the probability of development has increased to 70 percent, representing a high chance that the disturbance could develop into a tropical depression or low end tropical storm before reaching the Upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coast Tuesday or Tuesday night.
At this time, the primary concern for Louisiana remains heavy rainfall rather than wind or storm surge. The National Weather Service is forecasting average rainfall totals generally between 0.5 and 3 inches through Wednesday night, with the highest amounts expected near the coast. In a reasonable high-end scenario, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible across portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.
The flash flooding risk is currently Marginal south of the Highway 190 corridor today and increases to a Slight Risk Tuesday for portions of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas. High rainfall rates during thunderstorms may also cause nuisance street flooding and flooding in low-lying or poorly drained areas.
Minor coastal flooding may occur during the Tuesday morning high tide period, generally between 3:00 and 9:00 a.m. A few instances of severe thunderstorm wind damage also cannot be ruled out through Wednesday. Overall wind and surge impacts are currently expected to remain low, although that could change depending upon how the system develops before reaching the coast.
Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings may be required for portions of the southwest Louisiana or southeast Texas coast as the system becomes better organized.
Regardless of whether AL97 develops enough to receive a name, businesses and organizations across Louisiana, particularly those with operations in southwest and coastal Louisiana, should remain weather aware and review internal communications, continuity procedures, staffing considerations, and weather sensitive operations.
Because this system is developing relatively close to the Louisiana coast, conditions and forecast impacts could change quickly. It would be smart to remain weather aware until AL 97 makes landfall.
LABEOC will continue to monitor the system and coordinate with our state and local partners. I will provide additional updates if there are significant changes to the forecast or if watches or warnings are issued.
As always, if you become aware of any business or industry concerns related to this system, please let us know.
Stay safe and weather aware,
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